In less than 24 hours, Nigerians will go to the polls for the 7th time since the return of democracy to elect a new leader, in yet another attempt to pull the nation from the brinks of failure. After almost a hundred days of fiery campaigns, the election will ostensibly be slugged out between four main contestants. This year’s election, whilst feeling different from past elections, shares many similarities with them.
Similar, in that religion and ethnicity shaped most of the conversation in the campaign. Different in being a four-horse race rather than the usual two. Other peculiarities make it even more anticipated than ever: BVAS will be used for the first time; a digital biometric verification tool that aims to eliminate fake voters and over-voting, a more electorally aware populace (see distribution and spread of collected PVCs below; the highest in the Nation’s history), a cash strangulation policy introduced by the incumbent government at the eleventh hour to starve the politicians of cash and help check vote-buying; the bane of Nigeria’s elections, and finally, a generally more insecure country.
So far, this has been one of the most difficult elections to call. Here are my predictions.
| Tinubu | Obi | Atiku | Kwankwaso | |
| Lagos | 45% | 35% | 15% | 5% |
| Osun | 50% | 20% | 25% | 5% |
| Oyo | 45% | 30% | 20% | 5% |
| Ekiti | 50% | 30% | 15% | 5% |
| Ogun | 50% | 30% | 15% | 5% |
| Ondo | 45% | 35% | 15% | 5% |
The South-West is home to Tinubu and has been his political footstool since 1999. However, Obi has made significant inroads in the region and will present Tinubu with a stiff contest. Tinubu will come out tops but not without a bleeding nose. Lagos particularly, will be split down the middle. PDP will be helped in Osun by the influence of an incumbent governor. However it may seem Tinubu has a stronger influence in Osun, the most traditional Yoruba state, than even Lagos, Nigeria’s most cosmopolitan state.
| Tinubu | Obi | Atiku | Kwankwaso | |
| Bayelsa | 15% | 60% | 20% | 5% |
| Rivers | 25% | 60% | 10% | 5% |
| Cross-River | 20% | 65% | 10% | 5% |
| Akwa-Ibom | 10% | 55% | 30% | 5% |
| Edo | 20% | 50% | 25% | 5% |
| Delta | 10% | 40% | 45% | 5% |
The South-south is traditionally PDP but perhaps more ‘OBI-dient’ than the south-east. Obi is likely to get his highest numbers from here. Atiku might win narrowly in Delta due to the influence of Okowa, his running mate. Tinubu will likely aim to get just 25% in any of the states, and even at that, will struggle.
| Tinubu | Obi | Atiku | Kwankwaso | |
| Imo | 15% | 70% | 10% | 5% |
| Abia | 5% | 80% | 10% | 5% |
| Ebonyi | 15% | 75% | 5% | 5% |
| Enugu | 10% | 70% | 10% | 5% |
| Anambra | 5% | 85% | 5% | 5% |
Obi will win comfortably in the south-east but the overall impact may not be felt. First, the region is the least populated in Nigeria. Second, it is known to have the highest level of voter apathy. Third, it has been gripped by high levels of insecurity and a looming sit-at-home order threatens an already low voter turn-out. These factors may contribute in chopping down Obi’s stronghold.
| Tinubu | Obi | Atiku | Kwankwaso | |
| Plateau | 30% | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Nasarawa | 35% | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Niger | 40% | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Kwara | 45% | 10% | 35% | 10% |
| Kogi | 45% | 10% | 35% | 10% |
| Benue | 20% | 45% | 25% | 10% |
| FCT Abuja | 25% | 45% | 20% | 10% |
The North will be the main battle field for this election. The North central will be keenly contested. Tinubu will be helped by serving APC governors to deliver their states. Atiku will bank on traditional PDP voters plus northern sentiments. Obi will hope that his message of a new Nigeria was well received by the young people in the region. Obi should win Benue and possibly Abuja.
| Tinubu | Obi | Atiku | Kwankwaso | |
| Borno | 55% | 5% | 30% | 10% |
| Yobe | 50% | 5% | 35% | 10% |
| Bauchi | 40% | 5% | 45% | 10% |
| Taraba | 30% | 15% | 45% | 10% |
| Gombe | 45% | 5% | 40% | 10% |
| Adamawa | 20% | 5% | 65% | 10% |
The North East will be a straight contest between Tinubu, whose running mate is from Borno, and Atiku who hails from Adamawa. Being an APC region helps Tinubu greatly. The wild card here will be if the core northerners decide to vote for a son of the soil, Atiku. Unfortunately, Obi did not make much inroads here.
| Tinubu | Obi | Atiku | Kwankwaso | |
| Kano | 30% | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Katsina | 35% | 10% | 35% | 20% |
| Kaduna | 30% | 25 | 30% | 15% |
| Kebbi | 30% | 5% | 40% | 25% |
| Zamfara | 45% | 5% | 35% | 15% |
| Jigawa | 30% | 5% | 45% | 25% |
| Sokoto | 35% | 5% | 45% | 15% |
The North-west will also be a ferocious battle ground between Tinubu and Atiku, with Obi and Kwankwaso acting as spoilers. This election will be different because one person can no longer pocket 1.5 million votes from Kano or Kaduna. The APC governors will try to deliver their states but PDP also has some presence here (the Tambuwals, Lamidos etc) plus being a core northern region, helps Atiku. Unfortunately, Obi’s running mate is a featherweight politician even in his home-state, Kaduna.
In summary:
- The election will be keenly contested and is very likely to go to a run off; either of Tinubu, Obi or Atiku stands a chance.
- Kwankwaso is in the race strictly as a spoiler.
- Vote buying, enabled by the new currency policy will play a decisive role especially in the North, and Tinubu will benefit most from it.
- The contest would have been over a long time ago if Obi has chosen a traditional, career, core northern politician as his running mate, to improve his acceptability up north.
- If southerners come out en-masse to vote, then the country may be in for a shock.
- The data on PVC collection released by INEC bursts the myth that only the north can decide who becomes President.
- Without Obi on the ballot, Atiku would have won. Without Atiku on the ballot, Obi would have won. In most states, both men divide their 2019 votes. If either of them goes to the run off, he wins.