As 2023 approaches, the clamor for an Igbo president grows louder, albeit not as loud as some of us expected. Different terms have been used to describe this quest for an Igbo presidency, the most common being ‘Igbo president’ or ‘president of Igbo extraction’. I prefer to use the term ‘South East president’ or simply a president from the south east, for obvious reasons.
Nigeria is a multi-ethnic country with over 250 distinct ethnic nationalities, of which Igbo, Hausa and Yoruba are only 3 out of the lot. Rotating the presidency across ethnic groups is impracticable. It will take an ethnic group 2000 years (250 x 8 years) to get another shot at the presidency.
Nigeria was divided into geopolitical zones (not geo-ethnic zones) for practical reasons. If that practicability, along with fairness and equity, is to be employed in 2023, then the next president should come from the south east geopolitical zone. But it is not as simple as that.
By now it is clear that no political party or political bloc is willing to gift the presidency to the south-east zone or any other zone for that matter. This reluctance alone greatly challenges the prospects of a president from the south-eastern region of the country. In 2023, 2 major factors will play a role in determining the next president, both of which the south-eastern contenders lack, at least not in combination.
The first factor is money. Money will play a bigger role in 2023 than in any other elections the country has ever had. The simple reason being that poverty has been weaponized now more than ever and the greater the level of poverty in a society, the less freewill they have to make their choices. The poorer people are, the more likely they are to make their choices based on the prospects of getting their next meal. The likely winner of the 2023 presidential election will be the candidate that provides that false sense of poverty alleviation by throwing enough money around during election time. This is popularly known as stomach infrastructure. Apart from Orji Uzor Kalu and maybe Rochas Okorocha, no other south eastern contender has such financial muscle to pull off a win in the 2023 election (not the type Atiku Abubakar and Ahmed Tinubu are ready to pull).
The second factor is political capital. Clinching the presidency is never a walk in the park. To secure a majority of votes nationwide and at least a quarter of votes cast in all 36 states of the federation and the FCT requires the prowess of a true national politician. Most south eastern politicians are ‘local champions’. Their political capital rarely extends beyond their states, and in some cases, their senatorial zones. What weight can Anyim Pius Anyim pull beyond Ebonyi state? Which south eastern contender can comfortably walk into Zamfara or Bauchi state and pull at least 25% of the votes there? Not even Rochas with his ‘Hausa-centric’ outlook can do that. No south eastern contender calls the shots in any of the major political parties in the country. Unfortunately none of them has used the past 4 years to build that national bridge. They played locally for too long.
The only factor that may play a key role in upping the chances of a south-easterner clinching that seat is an endorsement from the President and I think most of the contenders in APC are banking on this. The chances however are really low because in the unlikely event that Buhari does this, the ‘cabal’ will block him.
In summary, the prospects of a south-eastern president are quite low. Apart from the factors mentioned above, there are other factors mitigate against their chances further. The agitation for Biafra and the way it has been approached so far has alienated south-east politicians from the voting mass both nationally, and even locally amongst their kit and kin. Many of them took the easy route of hiding in their shells or risk being mobbed. Secondly, the amount of vituperation expelled on social media so far has also alienated the south-east region from other regions in the country. The country is more divided now than ever and the President has not done enough to help matters. Without the strong backing of the President against all odds, I don’t see a south-easterner emerging as president in 2023.