Roughly 10 months to the Nigerian presidential elections, things have begun to take shape although a lot remains shrouded in secrecy. The major contestants are now known but their main financiers and backers remain hidden from the public. The month of May promises to be eventful as all political parties will hold their primaries.
Both major political parties (PDP and APC) have all but officially jettisoned zoning meaning that political clout and the depth of one’s pocket will play bigger roles in determining the next president than the person’s state of origin alone. More importantly, the President’s (and his handler’s) backing will be more crucial now than ever. In the last few weeks, it has become even more difficult to decipher who this person will be.
Earlier this year, the President said on TV that he won’t disclose his choice of his successor lest the person be ‘eliminated’. He meant business. The APC and the presidency have done a very good job so far in keeping this person secret. Tinubu perhaps banked on this presidential backing on account of an unseen/rumored agreement between the two to succeed Buhari after this tenure. So far, it doesn’t look like Buhari is intent on honoring that agreement, if it ever existed.
A few weeks ago, Rotimi Amaechi looked like he was going to be the anointed one. But as things stand now, there doesn’t seem to be much on the ground to support that assertion. In fact his campaign seems to have lost steam in the last 2-3 weeks. I stumbled on a rumor before Emeka Nwajiuba declared that he was the chosen man of the cabal. It was argued that he fits their bill; malleable, unknown, and southern. I don’t see this happening. No magic can deliver Emeka Nwajiuba at the main polls.
Then there is the Jonathan buzz that has just refused to go away. The rationale is that a Jonathan presidency will ensure power returns to the North in 4 years time. But if Jonathan hasn’t defected to the APC less than 4 weeks to the primaries, then this dream is as good as dead. Jonathan himself has been noticeably mute. At least we haven’t seen any branded buses by his ‘supporters’ yet.
Osinbajo’s entry into the race ruffled many feathers especially in the Tinubu camp and possibly in the cabal’s. He has to his advantage, the warm and cordial relationship he enjoyed with the President throughout their tenure. Of course, he doesn’t have the money and political clout of his political benefactor, Mr Tinubu and it is not clear who his backers are. But despite his good relationship with the President, I doubt he will be the chosen one. For one, he is not a favorite of the President’s handlers.
Other contestants in the APC seem to be jostling for ministerial tickets. Forget the extortionate sum charged by the party for its presidential ticket, most other contestants are probably only in it to register their interest for ministerial slots or other juicy appointments in the next administration. After all, it was rumored that people paid as much as 2 billion Naira to secure ministerial positions in this administration. What then is 100 million Naira?
The PDP seems not to have got its acts together yet. After toying with the idea of zoning initially, perhaps to pander to the South East, they abandoned it when they got tired of waiting for the APC to take a stand. The PDP’s ticket has been thrown open. An attempt at a Northern consensus candidate failed. Atiku Abubakar with his bottomless pockets remains the man to beat at the primaries. I read somewhere that delegates are being bought for as much as 10,000 USD.
Wike doesn’t trust that Tambuwal will be strong enough to stop Atiku this time. So to prevent what happened in Port Harcourt in 2018 from repeating itself, he’s thrown his hat into the ring. He intends to match Atiku dollar for dollar (with Rivers money of course).
Peter Obi, the darling of the Igbos has stuck his gun to issue-based politics. He has chosen the traditional route of trying to convince the delegates and win them over based on cogent issues that need fixing. That works overseas but sadly, not in Nigeria. Some of these delegates are only lucky, rural dwellers who found their names on the delegate list only as a reward for their loyalty to a chieftain of the party over the years. They have no business with Nigeria and its problems. They are only in it for the money.
Meanwhile, new entrants keep popping up everyday. Godwin Emefiele only picked up his form yesterday. The Ahmed Lawan rumor keeps gathering steam. The more big weights enter, the hazier the picture. But with a gun to my head, I’ll say Amaechi will eventually pick APC’s ticket (cabal’s choice) and Atiku PDP’s (money talking). We’ll have to sit this one out.